Current cycle progress
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BTC Cycle Overlay
BETACompare historical BTC halving cycles normalized from each halving date.
Overlay recap
Cycle state
3 signals
iClosest historical match
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iCurrent cycle status
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Waiting for cycle data
OCycle Overlay
Cycle Overlay
Normalized performance by cycle progress.
No observations for the selected range.
Cycle milestones
Milestones
0 cycles
RCycle recap and projection1 cycles
Confirmed historical cells use observed market data. Violet cells are conservative estimates, not known outcomes.
ConfirmedConservative estimate
| Cycle | Top | Top date | Bottom | Bottom date | Top vs prev | Top vs bottom | Drawdown | Days to top | Top to bottom | Start | End | Duration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fifth halving cycle (2028)projection | ~$188,020 | ~2029-10-05 | ~$63,927 | ~2030-10-05 | +50.6% | +402.1% | ~-66.0% | 533 | ~365 | 2028-04-20 | 2032-04-18 | 4y |
Conservative estimates use diminishing-return and diminishing-drawdown assumptions: the current-cycle bottom applies a -70% drawdown from the confirmed 2025 top, while the 2028 projection uses confirmed historical tops and prior cycle bottoms for context. Historical research, not financial advice.
How to read this chart
Guide
4 notes
?What this chart is
Each line is a BTC halving cycle normalized from its own halving date.
Cycles share the same progress scale for direct comparison.
?How to read it
X axis = progress through the halving cycle.
Y axis = performance from halving price.
Dashed line = historical average, when enabled.
?Probability windows
Green windows mark historical top clusters.
Red windows mark historical bottom clusters.
Darker zones mean stronger historical clustering.
?Display / legend
Green dots mark confirmed cycle tops. Red dots mark confirmed cycle bottoms.
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