Normalized Cycles
Every cycle is stretched or compressed to one full turn. Rotation compares cycle progress, not calendar days.
BTC Halving Spiral Chart
BETAInspired by TheRationalRoot's Bitcoin Spiral Chart. Normalized cycles compare BTC halving progress through one full turn.
Spiral Model
BTC halving spiral chart
Mode: Normalized Cycles
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Cycle milestones
Milestones
0 cycles
Cycle recap and projection1 cycles
Confirmed historical cells use observed market data. Violet cells are conservative estimates, not known outcomes.
ConfirmedConservative estimate
| Cycle | Top | Top date | Bottom | Bottom date | Top vs prev | Top vs bottom | Drawdown | Days to top | Top to bottom | Start | End | Duration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fifth halving cycle (2028)projection | ~$188,020 | ~2029-10-05 | ~$63,927 | ~2030-10-05 | +50.6% | +402.1% | ~-66.0% | 533 | ~365 | 2028-04-20 | 2032-04-18 | 4y |
Conservative estimates use diminishing-return and diminishing-drawdown assumptions: the current-cycle bottom applies a -70% drawdown from the confirmed 2025 top, while the 2028 projection uses confirmed historical tops and prior cycle bottoms for context. Historical research, not financial advice.
How to read this chart
Guide
4 notes
Raw Cycles
Cycles start at their halving date but keep their original historical duration. Rotation remains based on real days since halving.
Historical Timeline
Cycles are shown in real chronological order. This preserves the actual sequence of BTC history.
Probability Windows
Green sectors mark historical top zones. Red sectors mark historical bottom zones. Stronger clustering appears darker.